|TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN GULF.....
WEATHER.com - Tropical Storm Karen has formed in the the Yucatan Channel, and will move into the Gulf of Mexico, potentially posing a threat to the United States.
Hurricane watches are now in effect from Grand Isle, La., to Indian Pass, Fla. However, these watches do not include metropolitan New Orleans.
Tropical storm watches, however, do include metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Ponchartrain and Lake Maurepas, as well as the Gulf Coast from west of Grand Isle to Morgan City, La.
The disturbance has been festering over the past few days but until Thursday morning, Air Force reconnaissance aircraft were unable to find a closed circulation signaling the existence of a full-fledged tropical cyclone.
Data from Thursday morning's Air Force mission indicated that such a circulation had formed. Surface winds of 50 to 60 mph were measured in a portion of Karen's circulation, indicating that a fairly healthy tropical storm has already formed. It is the season's 12th tropical cyclone and 11th named storm.
As Karen moves northwest and north toward the central Gulf Coast, significant uncertainty remains about how strong it will become and how strong it can remain. Strong wind shear is expected to hold firm across the northern Gulf of Mexico, and this shear is likely to cause Karen to weaken to some degree as it approaches the U.S. mainland.
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